The Oklahoma State Cowboys will ride into Columbia, Missouri to take on the Tigers this Sunday for a massive Big 12 showdown between top 5 programs inside the Hearnes Center. 

#5 Oklahoma State is undefeated on the year, with a sparkling 10-0 record. Missouri is ranked #3, sporting an 8-1 record. The Tigers are coming off a loss to #7 Cornell 20-16 last Sunday, though they also defeated West Virginia 30-6 on the Friday before that. 

The Cowboys, meanwhile, hosted UNI and Iowa State and at home and beat both Iowan rivals, with a 22-12 win over the Panthers on Friday and a 21-12 victory over the Cyclones on Sunday. 

This upcoming dual is Missouri's only competition of the week. Oklahoma State, however, has a dual versus #12 Arizona State at home, where they will be favored to win, on Friday. 

Sunday's dual is also Senior Night for the Tigers, as it's the last home dual of the season. 

Series History

Oklahoma State, the bluest of all blue blood wrestling programs, unsurprisingly holds the lead in the all-time series, which stands at 45-8-1. The Tigers have been catching up, however, as all eight of those wins came under the tenure of current Missouri head coach Brian Smith, who has helmed the Tigers since the 1998-99 season. 

Missouri first beat Oklahoma State in the 2003-04 season, 21-17. More recently, the Tigers and Cowboys have been in very tight bouts, with a single point deciding the last two meetings. Missouri won in the 2021-22 season by a score of 21-20. The Cowboys returned the favor last season with a 17-16 win, which includes a tiebreaking criteria point for OSU. 

Oklahoma State and Missouri were both founding members of the Big 12 conference. Missouri left for the SEC in 2012 but two seasons ago rejoined the Big 12 as an affiliate member in time to the 2022 Big 12 Conference Championship. Missouri won the Big 12 crown last season well. Additionally, the Tigers were Big 12 champs in 2012, the last year Missouri was a full-time member of the Big 12. 

The Cowboys won the Big 12 title 19 times, with their most recent title coming in 20. They also have 36 conference championships from the Big 8, the precursor to the Big 12. Additionally, Oklahoma State holds a record 34 NCAA national championships.  

Projected Starting Lineups

Probables for both teams were not released by the time I started writing this preview but that won't stop me from making some educated guesses.

• 125: #11 Troy Spratley vs #3 Noah Surtin, Missouri
• 133: #3 Daton Fix, Oklahoma State vs #24 Kade Moore, Missouri
• 141: #8 Tagen Jamison, Oklahoma State vs #22 Josh Edmond, Missouri
• 149: #22 Sammy Alvarez, Oklahoma State vs #11 Logan Gioffre, Missouri
• 157: #15 Teague Travis, Oklahoma State vs #8 Brock Mauller, Missouri
• 165: #3 Izzak Olejnik, Oklahoma State vs #1 Keegan O’Toole, Missouri
• 174: #29 Brayden Thompson, Oklahoma State vs #5 Peyton Mocco, Missouri
• 184: #2 Dustin Plott, Oklahoma State vs #11 Clayton Whiting, Missouri
• 197: #16 Luke Surber, Oklahoma State vs #8 Rocky Elam, Missouri
• 285: #9 Konner Doucet, Oklahoma State vs #5 Zach Elam, Missouri

As you can see from the many hashtags and numbers on these potential matches, there are a lot of ranked wrestlers on both teams.

The Cowboys may go with Jordan Williams at 149, who is midst of a roster battle with teammate Samy Alvarez. Coach Smith has said recently that he likes what he sees from both wrestlers so our guess is whoever doesn't wrestle against Arizona State will wrestle at Missouri. 

Additionally, Cowboy true frosh Jersey Robb has been getting starts at 197. Coach Smith has said that he hopes to see Surber back in action this weekend but it will depend on his readiness. Another factor to consider is that if Robb wrestles in another dual, OSU will have to pull his redshirt. If neither Surber nor Robb go, expect to see Kyle Haas on the mat in an orange and black singlet. 

The Tigers had something of a roster battle going 184 between Colton Halwks and Clayton Whiting but Whiting has appeared to have solidified his spot in the lineup, wrestling in four of Missouri's five duals so far in 2024. 

There will be intriguing matchups at just about every weight. We'll highlight some of the matchups we're looking forward to most. 

How does a marquee #1 vs #3 matchup sound?

The highest ranked matchup of the dual, and perhaps the week, is between #1 Keegan O'Toole and #3 Izzak Olejnik at 165-pounds.

Olejnik will be Keegan's third consecutive top 10 opponent. Last weekend O'Toole defeated #9 Peyton Hall of West Virginia 8-7 and majored #4 Julian Ramirez 13-5. 

Olejnik has also been recently grappling with heavy 165lb hitters. He had #2 David Carr last weekend, dropping that bout 8-1. Olejnik also wrestled Hall three weeks ago, a bout he lost 5-1. Those are the only two losses on the season for Olejnik. For the sake of comparison, Olejnik beat Ramirez 4-2 at the 2023 Cliff Keen Las Vegas Invitational. Olejnik also won his NWCA All-Star Classic bout over current #5 Dean Hamiti of Wisconsin 8-2.

O'Toole, currently on a quest to win his third straight NCAA title, will be the favorite on Sunday, however, as his match with Hall showed, he is not totally untouchable. 

#4 Oklahoma State vs #9 Missouri is live on Flo this Sunday! Who wins? pic.twitter.com/QOFj3JsPTG

— FloWrestling (@FloWrestling) January 30, 2024

More Insanity at 125

This weight class has been a total mess this year, but a very enjoyable mess for spectators. For college rankers, not so much. 

Surtin will be the favorite on paper, but when it comes to the 125-pound weight class, we may as well be referring to toilet paper. There's essentially no such thing as an upset where top-ranked 125-pounders are concerned. 

Spratley, a redshirt freshman who came to Oklahoma State after a year at Minnesota, has about a half-dozen ranked wins this season, including one over Lehigh's Luke Stanich, the only countable (for NCAA purposes) collegiate loss of Stanich's career. 

In no uncertain terms is Noah Surtin not an NCAA contender this season, although he does not quite have the resume of Sprately, with only a couple of ranked wins so far. But he does have a win over Jore Volk, who has a win over Surtin, so like we said, good luck with your predictions as this weight!

A massive Big 12 dual is coming your way this Sunday at 2PM eastern as Mizzou hosts Oklahoma State live on FloWrestling! #MissouriWrestling pic.twitter.com/83o712MOfD

— FloWrestling (@FloWrestling) February 1, 2024

A True freshman vs a six-year senior

What I find intriguing about many of these matchups is how often it pits a senior vs a freshman. 125 was one of those (Surtin is a fifth-year with junior eligibility) and 174 is another.

Generally speaking, a mismatch in experience can manifest itself on the mat in multiple ways, sometimes with the more seasoned vet showing off his acquired skills and ability, and other times with the newcomer jumping levels and realizing new levels of potential. 

Brayden Thompson has sky-high potential, as evidenced by being the number four recruit on the Class of 2023 Big Board. The Illinois native got off to a rocky start to the season, hindered by injuries, but picked up a couple of ranked wins before dropping a bout to #28 MJ Gaitan in overtime last weekend. 

The Cowboy true freshman will be further tested by sixth-year senior and All-American, Peyton Mocco, who hails from Wisconsin. Mocco navigated the NCAA championship minefield last season to place eighth at his third tournament, though he also qualified in 2020. Mocco's sole loss of the season so far came in week one when he dropped a tight 8-7 bout against Cal Poly's #11 Adam Kemp. 

It's a good bet that Thompson will reach similar heights in his wrestling career. We'll have a better sense of just how close Brayden is to attaining that level of success after his match with Mocco, in the Missouri Tiger's last dual in his home gym. 

How about a redshirt freshman vs a seventh-year senior?

It's going to feel weird not having Daton Fix on the Oklahoma State roster after this season. The native Oklahoman joined the program in 2017, redshirting during the 2017-2018 season. The next year he made it to the 2019 NCAA finals before losing to Nick Suriano on a controversial no-call on a headgear pull. That summer Daton made the 2019 senior world team and represented the United States at the World Championships.

Fix would fortuitously take an Olympic redshirt in 2020 and has since made the podium three more times, including two more finals appearances. Fix is now using his final year of eligibility, thanks to the extra season all NCAA athletes who participated in the 2021 season received due to covid. 

Fix's opponent, Kade Moore, a redshirt freshman from Allen, Texas, will be a heavy underdog, though he does have a few tricks up his sleeve. Moore gave Vito Arujau a heck of a scare last weekend, leading the defending NCAA and UWW World champ for much of the bout before ultimately losing 10-9. Does Moore have another performance like that in him for Sunday night?

Kade Moore started turning heads after his matches against Sam Latona and Vito Arujau ? How will he stack up against Daton Fix this Sunday? ? pic.twitter.com/vPq7GLGWQo

— FloWrestling (@FloWrestling) February 1, 2024

A top 10 heavyweight bout could decide the dual

As mentioned, the last two times these teams met, the difference in the final score was a single point. things could easily play out in a similar fashion this season. If the match does end at heavyweight, we could be treated to another top 10 matchup. 

Missouri's Zach Elam has quietly put together a steller career in Columbia, anchoring the Tigers' lineup for five of the last six seasons -- Elam also fortuitously donned a redshirt for the 2020 season. Though he won matches at his first three trips to the NCAA Championships, it wasn't until last year that Elam finally broke through and made the podium, finishing 6th in a stacked 285-pound division.

Oklahoma State's Konner Doucet, meanwhile, has quietly wrestled his way into contender status at heavyweight in his fourth year in Stillwater. After a season redshirting and then a season behind teammate Luke Surber, who has since dropped down to 197, Doucet wrestled in the postseason for the first time in 2023, qualifying for the NCAA tournament. 

This season Doucet has seven ranked wins and will be in the mix to climb a podium step in March. 

Might we see Missouri native Zach Elam in his last collegiate match ever in the Hearnes Center with the dual on the line? It could happen!

Predictions

• 125: Surtin DEC Spratley, 3-0 Mizz
• 133: Fix MAJ Moore, 4-3 OSU
• 141: Jamison DEC Edmond, 7-3 OSU
• 149: Gioffre DEC Alvarez, 7-6 OSU
• 157: Mauller DEC Travis, 9-7 Mizz
• 165: O'Toole DEC Olejnik, 12-7 Mizz
• 174: Mocco DEC Thompson, 15-7 Mizz
• 184: Plott DEC Whiting, 15-10 Mizz
• 197: Elam DEC Surber, 18-10 Mizz
• 285: Elam DEC Doucet, 21-10 Mizz

These conservative picks give Missouri a commanding victory, but I would not be surprised in the slightest if things do not go quite so smoothly for the Tigers. 

125 is closer to a pick 'em than it is a certain Surtin victory, and 149 could easily go Alvarez's (or Wiliams') way. A tech-fall from Fix is also very much a possibility. A dual that starts out 14-0 in favor of the Cowboys after four matches is going make for a much spicier competition than my vanilla predictions would suggest. 

And that's why they wrestle the matches. A couple of reasonable breaks that go Oklahoma State's way plus one upset and we're looking at a Cowboy victory. 

We'll all find out what actually happens this Sunday. See you then!