2024 NCAA Championships Watch Party

The 7 Most Surprising NCAA Wrestling Championship Seeds

The 7 Most Surprising NCAA Wrestling Championship Seeds

The seven seeds that really made me scratch my head.

Mar 14, 2024
The 7 Most Surprising NCAA Wrestling Championship Seeds

Happy NCAA bracket day! You can view all the brackets HERE. Seeding is always a hot topic of debate, so let’s see where the seeds messed up.

First, we must know how the NCAA tournament is seeded. The NCAA uses a matrix formula for every qualifier that looks like this:

  1. Head-to-head competition — 25 percent
  2. Quality wins — 20 percent
  3. Coaches Ranking — 15 percent
  4. Results against common opponents — 10 percent
  5. RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) — 10 percent
  6. Qualifying event placement — 10 percent
  7. Win % — 10 percent

This sets the baseline for a committee that can then choose to switch guys around within a couple of points of what the matrix spits out.

The big takeaway is that the matrix rewards guys who win their non Power Five Conferences compared to a guy with an average record in a harder conference. 

Now, let's take a look at the seven seeds that still made me scratch my head. 

174 #9 Cater Starocci, Penn State

This occurred as the seeding matrix and committee had to consider Carter Starocci’s medical forfeits to Brody Baumann and Andrew Sparks at Big Tens as actual losses. The coach’s rank portion of the matrix is the only calculation that considered prior seasons’ results. We knew Starocci wasn’t going to be the #1 because of this, but it’s still shocking to see. This will likely be the lowest seed a three-timer going for his fourth will be for a very very long time.

133 #6 Vito Arujau, Cornell

Vito Arujau is the returning national champion and has only lost to one guy this year. Therefore, he’s ranked #2 or #3 across all the major wrestling rankings. However, the fact that he only wrestled 15 matches this season and wasn’t a conference champion hurt him in the matrix. I still didn’t think he would drop all the way to six.

165 #5 Philip Conigliaro, Harvard

This one might have shocked me the most. Philip Conigliaro is 24-3 this season, but he lost to Cornell’s Benny Baker twice at EIWAs. His best win this season was over seven-seed Lennox Wolak, but Wolak won EIWAs. 

149 - #11 Quinn Kinner, Rider

Quinn Kinner has the largest difference between his ranking and his seed of any wrestler in the tournament (giving unranked qualifiers a 34 ranking). We at FloWrestling have him ranked 30th but he got the 11 seed. Kinner is 17-9 this season with losses to five nonqualifiers and two at-large guys. 

149 #9 Ethan Fernandez, Cornell

While we’re talking about 149, I don’t understand Ethan Fernandez at #9 either. He won EIWA’s but the only national qualifier outside of the EIWA he beat this year was Finn Solomon, who needed an at-large. He suffered losses to 14-seed Dylan D’Emilio, backup Zach Redding, teammate Joshua Saunders, and medical forfeited to nonqualifier Nash Singleton. 

141 #18 Cole Matthews, Pitt

Losses to low ranked/non ranked opponents clearly don’t hurt you that much in the matrix unless your name is Cole Matthews. Matthews suffered 10 losses this season, but only one was a nonranked loss. This season Matthews beat #1 seed Jesse Mendez, #4 Ryan Jack, and #6 Lachlan McNeil (2X) this season. Matthews was hurt by his win percentage (16-10) and not being a conference champion. 

197 #12 Rocky Elam, Missouri

Rocky Elam got punished for only wrestling 14 matches this year. Despite this, he only lost to #3 seeded Tanner Sloan and #5 Jacob Cardenas. However, at Big 12s he beat #8 Stephen Buchanan. That is why he’s ranked #7. As a matter of principle for making the regular season matter, I actually like this. I was just surprised to see it.


Seeds vs Rank By Weight

Another way to evaluate the seeding is to break down what weights were seeded "best" and "worst" compared to our rankings. In the below table, you'll see that the 149 pound bracket has an average seed variance of 4.6 per wrestler making it the weight with the greatest disparity between our rankings and the seeds. Conversely, 197 pounds had the least difference with only a 2.2 average variance per wrestler. 

WeightVariance
1252.8
1333.6
1413.5
1494.6
1573.1
1653.3
1743.6
1842.7
1972.2
2853.1

Seed vs Rank By Conference

We also broke down how the seeds compare to our rankings by conference. In the below table, a positive number shows what conferences were seeded higher, on average, than where we have their wrestlers ranked. For instances, wrestlers from the MAC were seeded almost 5 spots better than we have them ranked. On the other side of things, wrestlers from the ACC were seeded, on average, 1 spot worse than where we have them ranked.

ConferenceAverage Seed Variance
ACC-1.03
Big 12-0.76
Big Ten-0.76
EIWA2.1
MAC4.96
PAC 12-0.64
SOCON4.21



Rank vs Seed For Every Qualifier

Now take a look at every qualifier's rank vs seed sorted by absolute value with the most differentiated at the top. All non-ranked guys received a rank value of 34. 

As I said earlier in this article, the matrix favors guys who win their non Power Five Conference vs guys in a harder conference with an average record.

RANK vs SEEDWRESTLERSEEDRANK
19Quinn Kinner, Rider (149)1130
18Kelvin Griffin, Lehigh (149)16NR
17Isaiah Powe, Chattanooga (141)17NR
17Ethan Fernandez, Cornell (149)926
-17Jaden Abas, Stanford (149)269
-17Logan Gioffre, Missouri (149)2811
17Austin Murphy, Campbell (174)1128
15Kurt Phipps, Bucknell (133)1328
-14Nick Hamilton, Virginia (165)3016
13Wyatt Henson, Lock Haven (141)1225
13Alex Cramer, Central Michigan (174)1932
11Anthony Noto, Lock Haven (125)1223
11Peyten Kellar, Ohio (157)718
10Brayden Palmer, Chattanooga (125)2232
-10Isaac Wilcox, Ohio State (157)3323
10James Conway, Franklin & Marshall (184)1929
10Grady Griess, Navy (285)1727
-10Hunter Catka, Virginia Tech (285)2616
-9Michael Colaiocco, Penn (133)2819
-9Cole Matthews, Pittsburgh (141)189
9Matthew Williams, Army (149)25NR
-8Michael Blockhus, Minnesota (157)135
8Joseph Bianchi, Little Rock (165)1321
-8Carter Starocci, Penn State (174)91
-8Dayton Pitzer, Pittsburgh (285)2113
-8Josiah Hill, Little Rock (285)2719
7Blake West, Northern Illinois (125)2633
7Max Gallagher, Penn (125)27NR
7Zeth Romney, Cal Poly (133)1118
-7Julian Chlebove, Arizona State (133)2417
-7Tom Crook, Virginia Tech (141)2013
-7Josh Edmond, Missouri (141)2114
7Caleb Tyus, SIEU (149)2431
7Jack Crook, Harvard (149)27NR
-7Alek Martin, South Dakota State (149)2922
-7Andrew Sparks, Minnesota (174)2417
-7Will Feldkamp, Iowa State (184)1710
7Cam Pine, Clarion (184)27NR
7John Poznanski, Rutgers (197)1421
-7Mac Stout, Pittsburgh (197)2114
-7Trevor Tinker, Cal Poly (285)2821
6Ethan Berginc, Army (125)2531
6Dom Serrano, Northern Colorado (133)915
6Derrick Cardinal, South Dakota State (133)1824
6Julian Farber, Northern Iowa (133)1925
6Gable Strickland, Lock Haven (133)2733
6Mitch Moore, Rutgers (141)1521
6Danny Fongaro, Indiana (141)2329
-6Vince Cornella, Cornell (141)2418
6Brayton Lee, Indiana (157)1117
-6Cody Chittum, Iowa State (157)148
-6Trevor Chumbley, Northwestern (157)2519
6Tyler Lillard, Indiana (165)1723
6Noah Mulvaney, Bucknell (165)2228
-6Holden Heller, Pittsburgh (165)2519
-6Maxx Mayfield, Northwestern (165)3125
-6Jake Logan, Lehigh (165)3327
6MJ Gaitan, Iowa State (174)1521
-6Ben Pasiuk, Army (174)1812
6Nate Dugan, Princeton (184)1622
6Caleb Hopkins, Campbell (184)28NR
-6Justin Rademacher, Oregon State (197)2923
6Boone McDermott, Oregon State (285)1420
-6Keaton Kluever, Hofstra (285)2418
-5Vance Vombaur, Minnesota (141)2722
-5Jordan Williams, Oklahoma State (149)2015
5Ed Scott, NC State (157)49
5Gunner Filipowicz, Army (165)1924
-5Derek Fields, NC State (165)2318
5Blaine Brenner, Minnesota (165)2732
5Chris Moore, Illinois (165)2833
5Evan Maag, George Mason (165)29NR
-5Patrick Kennedy, Iowa (174)127
-5Brayden Thompson, Oklahoma State (174)2520
5Jha'Quan Anderson, Gardner-Webb (184)29NR
-5Rocky Elam, Missouri (197)127
-5Luke Surber, Oklahoma State (197)2722
5David Szuba, Rider (285)1823
-4Patrick McKee, Minnesota (125)95
-4Eric Barnett, Wisconsin (125)106
-4Kysen Terukina, Iowa State (125)2420
-4Vito Arujau, Cornell (133)62
-4Jacob Van Dee, Nebraska (133)1410
-4Brody Teske, Iowa (133)1511
-4Nic Bouzakis, Ohio State (133)1612
-4Tyler Wells, Minnesota (133)2016
4Dom Zaccone, Campbell (133)2226
4Kade Moore, Missouri (133)2630
4Hunter Leake, California Baptist (133)30NR
4Lachlan McNeil, North Carolina (141)610
4Josh Koderhandt, Navy (141)1115
-4Clay Carlson, South Dakota State (141)3026
4Jude Swisher, Penn (149)30NR
-4Finn Solomon, Pittsburgh (149)3127
4Peyton Robb, Nebraska (157)812
-4Jared Franek, Iowa (157)106
4Max Brignola, Lehigh (157)2024
4Lucas Revano, Penn (157)2125
4DJ McGee, George Mason (157)2226
4Sonny Santiago, North Carolina (157)2731
4Dom Baker, Campbell (165)2630
4Phil Conigliaro, Harvard (174)59
-4Benny Baker, Cornell (174)2622
4Myles Takats, Bucknell (174)30NR
4TJ Stewart, Virginia Tech (184)711
4Jacob Nolan, Binghamton (184)2024
-4Gavin Kane, North Carolina (184)2218
4Malachi DuVall, George Mason (184)30NR
4Evan Bockman, Utah Valley (197)2024
4Benjamin Smith, Cleveland State (197)2529
-4Evan Bates, Northwestern (197)3228
4Owen Trephan, NC State (285)812
4Daniel Bucknavich, Cleveland State (285)2024
-4Nick Willham, Indiana (285)3329
3Richard Figueroa, Arizona State (125)811
-3Michael DeAugustino, Michigan (125)1815
-3Brendan McCrone, Ohio State (125)2926
-3Elijah Griffin, California Baptist (125)3027
3Tyler Klinsky, Rider (125)31NR
3Kai Orine, NC State (133)36
-3Braxton Brown, Maryland (133)1714
-3CJ Composto, Penn (141)2219
3Kai Owen, Columbia (141)31NR
-3Kal Miller, Maryland (141)3330
3Tyler Kasak, Penn State (149)710
3Corbyn Munson, Central Michigan (149)1518
-3Michael Cetta, Rutgers (149)3229
3Tommy Askey, App State (157)1922
-3Joey Blaze, Purdue (157)2320
-3Chase Saldate, Michigan State (157)2421
3Colton Washleski, Rider (157)3033
3Garrett Thompson, Ohio (165)1215
-3Giano Petrucelli, Air Force (165)1411
3Adam Kemp, Cal Poly (174)811
3Justin McCoy, Virginia (174)1316
-3Jackson Turley, Rutgers (174)1613
3Brody Conley, West Virginia (174)2023
3Luca Augustine, Pittsburgh (174)2326
-3Jared Simma, Northern Iowa (174)2825
-3Layne Malczewski, Michigan State (184)2320
-3Shane Liegel, Wisconsin (184)2421
3David Key, Navy (184)2528
3Zach Glazier, Iowa (197)710
-3Luke Stout, Princeton (197)1613
3Garrett Joles, Minnesota (197)2225
-3Luke Geog, Ohio State (197)2320
3Cole Urbas, Penn (197)2427
3Jack Wehmeyer, Columbia (197)2831
3Krystian Kinsey, Virginia (197)31NR
3Dorian Crosby, Bucknell (285)1922
3Matthew Cover, Princeton (285)2225
3Lucas Stoddard, Army (285)2326
3Bradley Hill, Iowa (285)2528
2Jore Volk, Wyoming (125)57
2Troy Spratley, Oklahoma State (125)68
2Jakob Camacho, NC State (125)79
2Nico Provo, Stanford (125)1416
-2Caleb Smith, Nebraska (125)1513
-2Dean Peterson, Rutgers (125)1614
-2Brandon Kaylor, Oregon State (125)2119
2Taylor Lujan, Michigan State (125)32NR
2Daton Fix, Oklahoma State (133)13
-2Aaron Nagao, Penn State (133)108
-2Marlon Yarbrough, Virginia (133)2321
2Braden Basile, Army (133)2527
2Jace Koelzer, Oklahoma (133)2931
2Dysen Dunham, VMI (133)32NR
2Jesse Vasquez, Arizona State (141)1416
-2Danny Pucino, Illinois (141)2523
-2Cleveland Belton, Oregon State (141)2624
-2Greyson Clark, Purdue (141)2927
2Todd Carter, Gardner-Webb (141)32NR
-2Chance Lamer, Cal Poly (149)108
-2Gabe Willochel, Wyoming (149)2220
2Drew Roberts, Minnesota (149)2325
-2Cael Swensen, South Dakota State (157)1513
-2Teague Travis, Oklahoma State (157)1614
-2Brock Mauller, Missouri (157)1715
-2Vinny Zerban, Northern Colorado (157)1816
2Mitchell Mesenbrink, Penn State (165)24
-2David Carr, Iowa State (165)42
2Antrell Taylor, Nebraska (165)810
-2Brevin Cassella, Binghamton (165)1513
-2Will Miller, App State (165)1614
2Hunter Garvin, Stanford (165)2022
2Stoney Buell, Purdue (165)2426
2Jack Thomsen, Northern Iowa (165)32NR
2Cade DeVos, South Dakota State (174)24
2Edmond Ruth, Illinois (174)35
-2Max Maylor, Wisconsin (174)1715
-2Tyler Eischens, North Carolina (174)2119
2Peyton Mocco, Missouri (174)2224
2Danny Wask, Navy (174)2729
2Michael Wilson, Rider (174)3133
2Cael Valencia, Arizona State (174)32NR
2Dylan Fishback, NC State (184)1012
-2Colton Hawks, Missouri (184)119
2Reece Heller, Pittsburgh (184)1517
-2Ryder Rogotzke, Ohio State (184)1816
-2Brian Soldano, Rutgers (184)2119
2Tomas Brooker, App State (184)32NR
-2Anthony D'Alesio, Long Island (184)3331
2Levi Hopkins, Campbell (197)1315
2Taye Ghadiali, Campbell (285)79
-2Nick Feldman, Ohio State (285)97
-2Lucas Davison, Michigan (285)108
2Jordan Greer, Ohio (285)32NR
1Luke Stanich, Lehigh (125)23
-1Drake Ayala, Iowa (125)32
-1Cooper Flynn, Virginia Tech (125)1110
-1Noah Surtin, Missouri (125)1312
-1Jett Strickenberger, West Virginia (125)1918
1Stevo Poulin, Northern Colorado (125)2021
-1Tanner Jordan, South Dakota State (125)2322
1Diego Sotelo, Harvard (125)2829
1Mike Joyce, Brown (125)33NR
-1Ryan Crookham, Lehigh (133)21
1Evan Frost, Iowa State (133)89
1Sam Latona, Virginia Tech (133)1213
-1Ethan Oakley, App State (133)2120
1Max Leete, American (133)3132
1Cayden Rooks, Indiana (133)33NR
-1Cael Happel, Northern Iowa (141)76
-1Sergio Lemley, Michigan (141)87
-1Brock Hardy, Nebraska (141)98
1Tagen Jamison, Oklahoma State (141)1011
-1Jordan Titus, West Virginia (141)1312
1Dylan Chappell, Bucknell (141)1617
1Malyke Hines, Lehigh (141)1920
1Ty Watters, West Virginia (149)56
-1Austin Gomez, Michigan (149)65
-1Casey Swiderski, Iowa State (149)87
-1Graham Rooks, Indiana (149)1716
-1Cody Bond, App State (149)1817
-1Ryder Downey, Nebraska (157)54
1Daniel Cardenas, Stanford (157)67
1Will Lewan, Michigan (157)910
-1Bryce Andonian, Virginia Tech (157)1211
1Johnny Lovett, Central Michigan (157)2627
-1Matty Bianchi, Little Rock (157)3130
-1Peyton Hall, West Virginia (165)98
-1Cam Amine, Michigan (165)109
1Andrew Cerniglia, Navy (165)1112
-1Connor Brady, Virginia Tech (165)1817
-1Caleb Fish, Michigan State (165)2120
1Mekhi Lewis, Virginia Tech (174)12
-1Shane Griffith, Michigan (174)43
1Lennox Wolak, Columbia (174)78
1Alex Faison, NC State (174)2930
1Brody Baumann , Purdue (174)33NR
1Isaiah Salazar, Minnesota (184)23
-1Dustin Plott, Oklahoma State (184)32
1Lenny Pinto, Nebraska (184)56
-1Bernie Truax, Penn State (184)65
-1Sam Wolf, Air Force (184)87
-1Bennett Berge, South Dakota State (184)98
1Jaden Bullock, Michigan (184)1213
1Aaron Ayzerov, Columbia (184)1314
1Chris Foca, Cornell (184)1415
-1Tony Negron, Arizona State (184)3130
1Silas Allred, Nebraska (197)1011
1Jaxon Smith, Maryland (197)1112
1Max Shaw, North Carolina (197)1516
1Joey Novak, Wyoming (197)1718
-1Nick Stemmet, Stanford (197)1817
1John Crawford, Franklin & Marshall (197)33NR
1Nathan Taylor, Lehigh (285)56
-1Zach Elam, Missouri (285)65
-1Josh Heindselman, Oklahoma (285)1110
-1Konner Doucet, Oklahoma State (285)1211
1Yaraslau Slavikouski, Rutgers (285)1314
1Cory Day, Binghamton (285)1617
1Nash Hutmacher, Nebraska (285)2930
1Seth Nevills, Maryland (285)3031
1Bennett Tabor, Minnesota (285)3132
0Braeden Davis, Penn State (125)11
0Matt Ramos, Purdue (125)44
0Brett Ungar, Cornell (125)1717
0Dylan Shawver, Rutgers (133)44
0Dylan Ragusin, Michigan (133)55
0Nasir Bailey, Little Rock (133)77
0Jesse Mendez, Ohio State (141)11
0Beau Bartlett, Penn State (141)22
0Real Woods, Iowa (141)33
0Ryan Jack, NC State (141)44
0Anthony Echemendia, Iowa State (141)55
0Jordan Hamdan, Michigan State (141)2828
0Ridge Lovett, Nebraska (149)11
0Kyle Parco, Arizona State (149)22
0Jackson Arrington, NC State (149)33
0Caleb Henson, Virginia Tech (149)44
0Ethen Miller, Maryland (149)1212
0Caleb Rathjen, Iowa (149)1313
0Dylan D'Emilio, Ohio State (149)1414
0Joe Zargo, NC State (149)1919
0Willie McDougald, Oklahoma (149)2121
0Jeffrey Boyd, The Citadel (149)3333
0Levi Haines, Penn State (157)11
0Jacori Teemer, Arizona State (157)22
0Meyer Shapiro, Cornell (157)33
0Jared Hill, Oklahoma (157)2828
0Legend Lamer, Cal Poly (157)2929
0Nick Stampoulos, Buffalo (157)3232
0Keegan O'Toole, Missouri (165)11
0Julian Ramirez, Cornell (165)33
0Dean Hamiti, Wisconsin (165)55
0Mike Caliendo, Iowa (165)66
0Izzak Olejnik, Oklahoma State (165)77
0Rocco Welsh, Ohio State (174)66
0Nick Incontrera, Penn (174)1010
0Gaven Sax, North Dakota State (174)1414
0Parker Keckeisen, Northern Iowa (184)11
0Trey Munoz, Oregon State (184)44
0Maximus Hale, Penn (184)2626
0Aaron Brooks, Penn State (197)11
0Trent Hidlay, NC State (197)22
0Tanner Sloan, South Dakota State (197)33
0Michael Beard, Lehigh (197)44
0Jacob Cardenas, Cornell (197)55
0Lou DePrez, Binghamton (197)66
0Stephen Buchanan, Oklahoma (197)88
0Stephen Little, Little Rock (197)99
0Wyatt Voelker, Northern Iowa (197)1919
0Andy Smith, Virginia Tech (197)2626
0Sam Mitchell, Buffalo (197)3030
0Greg Kerkvliet, Penn State (285)11
0Yonger Bastida, Iowa State (285)22
0Wyatt Hendrickson, Air Force (285)33
0Cohlton Schultz, Arizona State (285)44
0Lewis Fernandes, Cornell (285)1515

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