2021 Big 12 Championship Preview & Predictions
2021 Big 12 Championship Preview & Predictions
Bratke breaks down everything you need to know about each weight at the Big 12 Championship and predicts who qualifies for the NCAA Tournament.
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I feel like I've been preaching this for the past four or five years, but the Big 12 continues to get better and better, and this year is no different. Five Big 12 teams are currently ranked in our top 25 tournament rankings, and six schools finished the season inside our top 25 dual rankings.
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Team Race Breakdown
Taking the pre-seeds and assigning tournament point values as if they were placements, we get the following team score point matrix.
It's no surprise to see Oklahoma State on top. The Cowboys have won the last Big 12 titles, and will be looking to make it nine in a row in Tulsa on Sunday. Iowa State also finished as last year's runner-up. The team taking the biggest jump is Wyoming who is projected to finish in the top three after taking seventh last March. It will be interesting to see if anyone can hang with Oklahoma State or if a team in the 4-6 range in these projections jump into the top three.
Before you take a deep dive into all 10 weights, check out pre-seeds right HERE and brackets right HERE.
125 Pounds - 5 AQs
Penn State transfer, Brody Teske, has been one of the top storylines nationwide this season. After beginning the season unranked, Teske quickly found himself in the top ten after beating Connor Brown and Alex Mackal on the same day. Teske's lone setback of the season came to #4 and undefeated Brandon Courtney. The biggest challenger on his side of the bracket will likely be the winner of the 4-5 quarterfinal between Killian Cardinale and Danny Vega. Both Cardinale and Vega got off to slow starts but enter the Big 12 Championship riding five and 12 match win streaks, respectively.
Watch Teske and Mastrogiovanni's battle from earlier this season.
After wrestling last season at 133, Taylor LaMont is back at 125, where he made the bloodround at the 2018 NCAA Championships. LaMont is a perfect 6-0 on the season and has won four of his six matches by bonus points. Trevor Mastrogiovanni had a good true freshman season but will likely square off with Cody Phippen of Air Force again in the quarterfinals, who pushed the Cowboy in a 2-1 match late in January. Phippen was fifth at the Big 12 Championship in 2020.
The potential bracket buster on the bottom side is #7 seed Kysen Terukina of Iowa. The Hawaii native is 6-2 on the year, and his lone losses were to Connor Brown by a single point and a sudden victory thriller with Mastrogiovanni. He would see LaMont in the quarterfinals.
Predictions
1. Brody Teske, Northern Iowa
2. Taylor LaMont, Utah Valley
3. Trevor Mastrogiovanni, Oklahoma State
4. Killian Cardinale, West Virginia
5. Cody Phippen, Air Force
133 Pounds - 5 AQs
While nine of the 12 133-pounders in the Big 12 are currently ranked in our top 25, none of them are on Daton Fix's level. Since the nation's top-ranked 133-pounder returned from his suspension in early February, he's picked up four falls and a tech fall. Three of those falls came to wrestlers in this bracket. Fix has pinned the #2 seed Ryan Sullivan, the #6 seed Job Greenwood, and Anthony Madrigal, who has been in and out of the top 25 this season. #11 Jared Van Vleet of Air Force would be the highest-ranked wrestler he would see before the finals.
The biggest surprise of the bracket has been West Virginia's, Ryan Sullivan. Since taking over the 133-pound spot for the Mountaineers, Sullivan has beaten Theorius Robison, Job Greenwood, Jared Van Vleet, and Haiden Drury. Despite earning the #2 seed, he'll have a tough opening round match as UNI elected to go with returning NCAA qualifier Jack Skudlarczyk. The Austin, Texas native opened the season ranked #14, but Kyle Biscoglia started almost all of UNI's Big 12 duals. Biscoglia worked his way into the top 15 but ended the season with a loss to Zach Redding of Iowa State. Skudlarczyk is 5-1 on the year but hasn't wrestled since February 5. A year ago, he was fifth at a loaded weight at this tournament.
Predictions
1. Daton Fix, Oklahoma State
2. Ryan Sullivan, West Virginia
3. Zach Price, South Dakota State
4. Jared Van Vleet, Air Force
5. Mosha Schwartz, Northern Colorado
141 Pounds - 4 AQs
Last year's finalists as this weight, Ian Parker and Dom Demas, are back and huge favorites to once again meet in the finals. Going into last year's match in Tulsa, Demas had won three straight against the Cyclone, but it was Parker who came out on top in sudden victory, and again by a point earlier this season.
Watch Parker and Demas battle back in late January.
The X factor at this weight is Kaden Gfeller from Oklahoma State. Gfeller will be the Cowboy's third starter at this weight despite the shortened season. Two-time All-American Kaid Brock began the year here but once again suffered a season-ending knee injury. Next up was top 20 ranked Dusty Hone, who suffered an injury during the Cowboy Challenge finals on Valentine's Day. Now, Kaden Gfeller will make his return to the OSU lineup and his return to the 141-pound weight class since the Southern Scuffle last season. Gfeller made the finals of the tournament before falling to Real Woods but didn't wrestle another match all season. Despite being 4-1, he's yet to wrestle a match at 141 this year and has wrestled two matches up at 157. John Smith said it best...
Let's go!!!! pic.twitter.com/YoexcTlbCr
— Seth Duckworth (@Seth_Duckworth) March 3, 2021
Predictions
1. Ian Parker, Iowa State
2. Dom Demas, Oklahoma
3. Clay Carlson, South Dakota State
4. Lenny Petersen, Air Force
149 Pounds - 5 AQs
Two-time Big 12 champion Boo Lewallen is the top seed but will have a tough path on his journey to a third title. In the semifinals, he's likely to see fellow All-American Jaret Degen, but to get there the Cyclone must get through Triston Lara, who pinned him last month. A year ago, Lewallen and Degen also met in the semifinals, and it was Lewallen winning by fall.
With the only two All-Americans on the top half of the bracket, the #2 seed, Andrew Alirez, is the favorite on the bottom. Alirez's first two opponents, Jaron Jensen and Cameron Hunsaker, he's pinned and majored this season. A potential top 20 semifinal matchup with Mitch Moore looms large.
Predictions
1. Boo Lewallen, Oklahoma State
2. Andrew Alirez, Northern Colorado
3. Jarrett Degen, Iowa State
4. Mitch Moore, Oklahoma
5. Triston Lara, UNI
157 Pounds - 3 AQs
Despite having six wrestlers ranked in the top 25, it feels like David Carr has separated himself from the rest of the field. Carr is 12-0 on the year with 83% of his wins coming by bonus points. Against the field that will be in Tulsa, Carr shutout #13 Justin Thomas, doubled up #20 Wyatt Sheets and majored #18 Cade DeVos, and #12 Jared Franek. The Cyclone is a massive favorite to win his second straight conference crown.
Watch Carr make a statement against Franek.
Returning Big 12 finalist, Wyatt Sheets, is battling through injuries and hasn't been the wrestler we saw last season. The Cowboy is just 5-4 on the year and would have to go through Franek and Thomas, who has beaten him twice this season to return to the finals. Franek and Thomas haven't met since the third-place match at this tournament last year when Franek came out on top. The two are likely on a collision course for the semifinals with another shot at Carr on the line.
With only three allocations at this weight, three top 25 wrestlers will need to receive wildcard selections to make the NCAA Championships.
Predictions
1. David Carr, Iowa State
2. Jared Franek, North Dakota State
3. Justin Thomas, Oklahoma
165 Pounds - 5 AQs
Much like 133 and 157, this weight has a clear-cut favorite that's a level or two above the field. This season top-seeded Travis Wittlake had majored #2 seed Peyton Hall and doubled up the #3 seed Moody. The Cowboy will be tough to stop from winning his second straight Big 12 Championship.
The bottom half of the bracket will likely go chalk and come down to another showdown between Hall and Moody. It was Hall who squeaked past Moody in the dual earlier this season 7-6. Jordan Robinson and Austin Yant were the 7th and 8th place finishers at this weight last season but have only wrestled a combined six matches this season.
Predictions
1. Travis Wittlake, Oklahoma State
2. Peyton Hall, West Virginia
3. Cole Moody, Wyoming
4. Luke Weber, North Dakota State
5. Austin Yant, Northern Iowa
174 Pounds - 4 AQs
Outside of 197, this might be my favorite weight in Tulsa. How tough is it? Returning Big 12 finalist Anthony Mantanona is the #8 seed and will likely hit the #1 seed, Demetrius Romero, in the quarterfinals. The #5 seed Cody Surratt has been in and out of the top 25 all season, and the #4 seed Lance Runyon has a win over Mantanona this season as well.
Watch Romero pick up a win over the #7 seed Cade King earlier this season.
The bottom half is just as loaded with Hayden Hastings, Dustin Plott, Jackson Hemauer, and Julien Broderson. All have been ranked in the top 25 at points during the season, and Hastings and Plott remain in the top 17. The biggest question for me is how healthy is Plott? During his Cowboy Challenge final against Hastings, it appeared that Plott's shoulder came out and he hasn't looked the same since. In his Bedlam loss to Mantanona, Plott was wearing a shoulder brace and had to take injury time. I still like him to advance to the semifinals, but can't see him getting by a healthy Hastings.
Predictions
1. Demetrius Romero, Utah Valley
2. Hayden Hastings, Wyoming
3. Dustin Plott, Oklahoma State
4. Anthony Mantanona, Oklahoma
184 Pounds - 4 AQs
Parker Keckeisen burst onto the scene, and thanks to an undefeated regular season with a win over All-American Dakota Geer, has established himself as the man to beat in the Big 12. No matter who the freshman sees in the semifinals, Sammy Colbray or Alan Clothier, will be a tough test. Colbray pushed Keckeisen to a 2-1 match earlier this season, and Clothier is 7-1 on the year with his only loss coming to Tate Samuelson.
Speaking of Samuelson, on the bottom side of the bracket, it appears we are headed for another collision between the Wyoming Cowboy and Oklahoma State Cowboy Dakota Geer. On Valentine's Day, it was Samuelson that came out on top inside Gallagher-Iba.
Predictions
1. Parker Keckeisen, Northern Iowa
2. Dakota Geer, Oklahoma State
3. Tate Samuelson, Wyoming
4. Sammy Colbray, Iowa State
197 Pounds - 5 AQs
Ask wrestling fans across the country which weight they are most excited for this weekend? They'll likely tell you this weight. The top five seeds are all ranked in the top 14 in the nation and only wrestle incredible matches against each other.
Returning Big 12 runner-up Tanner Sloan earned the top seed after putting together a perfect regular season with 84% of his coming by bonus points. Also, on the top seed and on track for another showdown in the quarterfinals is #5 seed Jake Woodley and #4 seed AJ Ferrari. Ferrari has won the previous meetings between the two by the scores of 4-1 and 3-2.
The bottom side is just as fun as it features the returning Big 12 champion, Noah Adams, and the man who has beaten him twice this season, Stephen Buchanan. It also features Marcus Coleman and Jacob Seely who have spent the majority of their careers ranked and each has qualified for the NCAA Championships twice. Coleman would likely see Adams in the quarterfinals and Seely squares off with Buchanan in the opening round.
Watch Buchanan take out Adams the first time this season in early February.
Predictions
1. Noah Adams, West Virginia
2. AJ Ferrari, Oklahoma State
3. Tanner Sloan, South Dakota State
4. Stephen Buchanan, Wyoming
5. Jake Woodley, Oklahoma
285 - 5 AQs
A year ago, Brian Andrews stormed his way to a Big 12 title beating Austin Harris, Carter Isley, Tate Orndorff, and Gannon Gremmel in consecutive matches. This year he once again comes in underrated. Andrews enters with a 4-3 record, but all three losses are to top 10 ranked out of conference wrestlers. Andrews would see Isley again in the semifinals who he is 2-0 in his career against. Wyatt Hendrickson could be the X-factor of the bottom side as he pinned Brandon Metz and wrestled Andrews to a 10-9 match earlier this season.
Gannon Gremmel enters as your top seed after a 12-1 regular season with wins over Isley, Metz, Harris, and Josh Heindselman. Harris and Heindselman had two 3-1 matches this season and will likely meet for the right to take on Gremmel in the semifinals.
Predictions
1. Brian Andrews, Wyoming
2. Gannon Gremmel, Iowa State
3. Carter Isley, Northern Iowa
4. Josh Heindselman, Oklahoma
5. Wyatt Hendrickson, Air Force