Home sweet home. If you asked CCHA coaches in October about their playoff aspirations, they all would have told you that Job No. 1 is to secure home ice in the first round. Here we are, five months later, and the three-team battle between Bowling Green, Lake Superior and Northern Michigan for the CCHA’s final home playoff spot is stealing the thunder from the confrontation of the league’s two superpowers. 

Why is home ice such a big deal? Let’s count the ways: it saves teams from a long bus ride and the costs of spending a weekend on the road, and it’s a major boon to your chances of advancing to the conference semifinals—which also leads to a spike in your PairWise rankings while half the country falls off. When it comes to climbing the steep postseason pyramid, there’s no place like home. Let’s get granular.

Bowling Green State Vs. Lake Superior State

Here’s everything you need to know: one team must sweep to assure a host position in next week’s CCHA quarterfinals. BGSU and LSSU are in a dead heat, tied for the all-important 4th spot in the standings. A split between these teams leaves the door wide open for hard-charging Northern Michigan, who is playing Ferris down the road in Marquette. The mentality has to be sweep, or start packing. 

Can’t win without scoring, and the power play is key to lighting the lamp. In analyzing the strength of a team’s power play, the rule of thumb is, “What have you done for me lately?” Season-long power-play statistics are not nearly as telling as how a team has performed in the last few games. BGSU’s PP is popping at 21.4 percent on the season, but in the last four games they have slipped to 17.7 percent (3-17). Ty Eigner and his staff will need to amp up their man-up, or they will be living out of their suitcases for the rest of the season. The Lakers are clicking at 20 percent over the last four games, but took an oh-fer (0-3) against St. Thomas last weekend. One team will need to get their PP untracked if they intend to enjoy home cooking next week.

Prediction: An evenly divided split, which may prove fatal to both teams' hopes of hosting a quarterfinal series.

Ferris State Vs. Northern Michigan

Last weekend, Northern Michigan woke up the echoes of last season’s Cinderella run with their road sweep of Bowling Green, putting themselves in excellent position to steal the coveted fourth slot in the CCHA standings. They are currently a point behind Bowling Green and the Lakers. 

Northern is the healthiest they have been in months, as their premier playmaker (Hank Crone) and trustworthy goalie (Charlie Glockner) are back in the lineup. Potulny’s Wildcats have scored power play goals in each of their last three games (20 percent), and the team is executing within themselves. 

“Everyone embraced whatever their role was last weekend,” said a grateful Potulny, a coach whose veteran club is primed for another long ride through the post-season. From his perspective, the playoffs begin Friday, and a series victory should keep them at home for the next stage.

Prediction: Another sweep for the reborn Cats, and a chance to host the quarterfinals.

No. 1 Minnesota State Vs .No. 4 Michigan Tech    

It’s almost inconceivable that a matchup between the CCHA’s two nationally ranked squads, the two teams projected to play in the CCHA Championship game, is relegated to third on this week’s marquee of games. But both squads have locked up their playoff status, both know their first round opponent, and both appear secure to make the national tournament. And there lies the rub, the word “appear.”

Joe Shawhan’s season-long obsession with the national PairWise rankings, the gatekeeper to the NCAA tournament, has officially bamboozled the Tech coach. A win last month versus then-No. 25 Bowling Green dropped his Huskies two spots, but a tie with #51 Ferris did not move them off their No. 12 ranking. Go Figure! (Hint: Miami of Ohio’s recent sweep of NCHC stalwart Omaha was a big reason Tech remained at No. 12—Ferris beat Miami in October, and it’s all about comparing scores). 

No matter how complex the math, Shawhan knows that if his Huskies claim a single point off the second ranked team in the PairWise—the MNSU squad that has spanked national powers UMass, Duluth and St. Cloud—Tech will get a boost in the only rankings that count. 

“The opportunity for us is huge,” said Shawhan on his weekly radio show.

The opposite is true for NCAA bubble teams. If Tech is swept, and if they lose to Ferris in the CCHA quarters, Shawhan’s nightmare of his season being victimized by a computer, becomes a harsh reality. A tie against the Mavericks erases all that doubt.

Prediction: Home ice matters! Behind shutdown goaltending from Blake Pietila in the MacInnes Student Arena, the Huskies scratch a point or two off powerhouse MNSU. Shawhan finally sleeps soundly in the knowledge that Tech will make the NCAA tournament at last.